As more and more advanced technologies emerge, predictions about what our future will be like only become more fantastic. According to some scientists, robots and artificial intelligence will cause job losses. Which professions are at risk? And what specialties will be in demand?
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To answer these questions, it is worth understanding how and why the global work environment is changing. The famous American economist Jeremy Rifkin published the book “The Third Industrial Revolution” in 2011. In it, he talked about three industrial revolutions in human history. The first was associated with the use of steam and coal power, as well as with the advent of printing. The second - with the invention of the internal combustion engine and electricity, the development of the oil and gas industry, communications (telephone, radio, television).
The third industrial revolution is the transition to renewable energy sources and electric vehicles, turning homes into mini-power plants, energy storage and distribution. It is obvious that developed countries are already in full swing experiencing the third industrial revolution. Let's say that today an ordinary resident of a small German town can sell excess energy generated using solar panels on his roof. Gradually, developing countries will come to these innovations - this is inevitable. However, this is not the limit. A couple of years ago, at the World Economic Forum in Davos, the famous economist Klaus Schwab proposed a new term - the fourth industrial revolution. In his opinion, developed countries have already moved to the next stage of development, and very soon this will affect specialists around the world.
The fourth revolution is called digital. Its distinctive feature is the blurring of the boundaries between the physical, biological and digital spheres, and its main tool is innovation. Cloud technologies, big data, the Internet of things, drones, 3D printing - these are the first signs of future changes. And in the future, innovations will appear and develop even more rapidly: large companies and entire countries will contribute to this.
Total automation
Most likely, over time, almost all production processes will be automated, as well as many operations that were previously performed by white-collar workers. Stanford University academic Jerry Kaplan says automation is "discoloring your collar": It doesn't matter whether you're a factory worker, a financial advisor, or a professional musician. Automation will still affect you. The only question is when exactly this will happen.
In January 2017, McKinsey & Company conducted a study, the results of which state that at least 30% of tasks in 60% of jobs can be automated. And the University of Oxford says that over the next 20 years the number of jobs will decrease by 47%. And not a single state, even among the most wealthy and advanced, is ready for such a development of the situation. In fact, labor automation has always meant fewer jobs. For example, the creation of a mechanical loom put weavers out of work. However, as a result, other professions arose, because it was necessary to assemble machines, maintain and repair them. Blacksmiths lost their jobs when cars appeared. But many of them were able to retrain as mechanics.
But today everything is different. Far more jobs will disappear than will be created. And those that appear will most likely require intellectual abilities well above average. Almost the entire middle class will be at risk, not to mention manufacturing employees. Computers will be able to handle many tasks, much more efficiently than humans. And it will cost the employer less than hiring employees. This is what one of Toyota's factories in Japan looks like. People are practically not needed there.
Candidates for departure
So who should start worrying about their future employment?
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Accountants and financial analysts
Experts from The Economist magazine assure that computers will soon be able to analyze financial data and make decisions much better than people. The speed of information processing in a computer is much higher; in addition, it is not subject to “mental traps” like a person, and therefore is able to maintain objectivity.
This category of disappearing professions includes all kinds of bank clerks, tax consultants and auditors. Most likely, the computer will cope with their task much better. It will also completely eliminate the possibility of corruption.
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The doctors
It would seem that this profession will always be in demand. However, in fact, technologies created based on the analysis of “big data” are gradually replacing doctors, whose main task is making a diagnosis. If you think about it, this is logical: after all, a person can only rely on his own experience, that is, at best, a couple of thousand patients. While a computer can analyze tens of millions of patient records, identify repeating patterns and, accordingly, make a diagnosis much more accurately.
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Lawyers
Today this profession is one of the most in demand and well paid, but, as in the case of doctors, artificial intelligence and big data can lead to automation of the work of lawyers.
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Drivers
13 years ago, two famous American economists wrote in an article that self-driving cars would not be able to make left turns because the analysis of the situation included too many factors. Six years later, Google has proven that a fully autonomous car is not a fantasy, but a reality. As a result, the jobs of millions of taxi and truck drivers are at risk.
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Chefs and restaurant staff
Oxford scientists estimate the probability of automating the work of cooks in fast food establishments at 81%. In fact, there is already a robot called Flippy, an artificially intelligent kitchen assistant that cooks burgers at the CaliBurger chain.
As for the waiters and their main task - taking orders correctly - they too are under threat. Not long ago, the first automated restaurant opened in San Francisco. Receiving orders looks like this:
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Seamstresses and shoemakers
This work is considered creative, so, at first glance, it should not be in danger of extinction. But don’t forget what modern technology is capable of. For example, using a 3D printer you can even print clothes, in particular, this designer dress:
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Farmers
In developed countries, there is increasing talk that people employed in the agricultural sector may also lose their jobs. This will happen due to the improvement of agricultural technology and the use of robots.
Of course, this list is not complete. It can include many other professions: librarian, builder, taxi dispatcher, reporter... There is an opinion that the teaching profession will also disappear as artificial intelligence develops. This is exactly what futurist and founder of string theory Michio Kaku says. And, most likely, this will be the case with most teachers who simply retell the textbook. With the same success, a student can watch a video lecture by some talented teacher. And the computer can easily handle checking your homework.
Who can't be afraid of change?
It is clear that the labor market landscape will change greatly in 20-30 years. However, some professions will remain, and new ones will appear. Oxford has proposed its own list of professions that are least likely to be automated. In the first place are mental health specialists and working psychologists. They will have a lot of work to do, as many employees will find it difficult to cope with the changes.
In second place are nutritionists and healthy eating specialists. On the third - surgeons. Modern technologies make it possible to automate some of their work, but not all. And finally, artificial intelligence is unlikely to replace priests in the coming years.
In general, if you look closely at the forecasts regarding our future, they highlight two large groups of professions that will be important for humanity. The first is related to the development of new technologies. For example, biotechnology will develop new products (more efficient and environmentally friendly) and help companies switch to them. Robot designers will create different versions of artificial intelligence assistants: for doctors, for the military, for home use, etc. Intelligent system architects and operators will also be needed to manage them. Let's say that ground transport in the future will become completely autonomous, but people will be needed to design new lines and monitor the performance of existing ones.
The second group of professions deals with what computers cannot yet achieve: relationships between people, art, and model building (such as business strategy). Even if a teacher in the traditional sense is no longer needed, tutors, mentors and coaches will continue to be (and perhaps even more) in demand. The same goes for psychologists. Where human participation is needed, artificial intelligence is not yet able to compete with us. However, this does not mean that this will always be the case. Creativity has always been considered an attribute of human nature, but who knows how the situation will change in 20 years? It is possible that computers will supplant us in creative professions. Already there are machines that compose music, create paintings and beat people at complex board games that require non-standard moves.
What conclusion follows from this? Because the future is uncertain, it pays to act like a smart investor. Instead of “investing yourself” in one job, you should choose a diversification strategy. That is, develop all your talents to the maximum and be prepared for the fact that anything can happen.
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