Layoffs, pay cuts, unemployment. Should programmers be afraid of the 2020 crisis?

It is mid-April 2020: the global anti-viral quarantine is in full swing, many businesses are out of business, and the global economy is in a slight, at least for now, knockdown. Against this background, more and more often one hears the opinions of experts (both quite real economists and couch "professors"), predicting an imminent economic crisis, which is traditionally feared. Well, or at least be afraid, with a stern look, thrusting earned dollars into March. All this fuss extends to programmers, to whom nothing human is alien, and the coming crisis forces us to think about the prospects and plan our future. But is this problem of the 2020 crisis relevant for developers? Let's discuss.

Demand for programmers and competition from AI

Let's start, for the sake of solidity, with numbers and research. Despite rampant automation, which shifts many of the responsibilities of programmers and other technical professionals to robots and artificial intelligence, the number of developer positions around the world will continue to grow until at least 2026, according to a study by The Knowledge Academy and Glassdoor. Thus, in the United States by 2026, the total number of positions will increase by more than 250 thousand. The American Bureau of Labor Statistics also predictsIncreasing employment options for software developers by 21% by 2028. While this data only applies to the United States, it can be extrapolated to the rest of the world as the growth in demand for developers in America will inevitably affect other countries as well. Thus, it can be assumed that for at least this decade the demand for programmers will continue to grow; despite the fact that even now it is very high. It is interesting to note that it is the development and widespread introduction of AI into all processes that causes concern for many developers who are afraid that robots will soon begin to take away their work. However, research sayson the contrary: despite the fact that automation does lead to the reduction of many positions, it also creates new ones, and even more. Thus, experts predict that by 2022, due to the introduction of AI, 75 million positions will be reduced, while 133 million jobs will be opened. That is, automation and the development of AI only increase the number of employment options, and do not reduce them.

Programmer and Crisis 2020

We figured out the demand for developers - in the near future it will only grow. Now let's talk about why economic crises have much less impact on programmers than on representatives of most other professions, and financial problems, at least in the coming decades, do not particularly threaten them. So, why is the programmer still not afraid of the crisis?

• Flexibility and the ability to work remotely

  Of course, the fact that programming is one of the most flexible professions in terms of workplace requirements plays a rather important role. In today's world, for most programmers, not the most powerful laptop with Internet access is enough to work. This opens up opportunities for remote work, which has already been gaining momentum around the world (in the IT industry in the first place), and with the advent of general quarantine at the beginning of 2020, it has become a mass trend. Remote work is gaining popularity because such a regime is often beneficial to both sides of labor relations: employees get the opportunity to do their job at home, which for many qualitatively changes the perception of employment itself, and employers save money on organizing a workplace and other costs of maintaining office employees.

  However, the flexibility of the developer profession is not only that they can write code sitting in the kitchen, but also that there are different forms of employment to choose from. Programmers can work in the company's staff or on a contract basis, which is now becoming more common and gives high-demand specialists greater mobility. And of course, freelancing, as another important form of employment, allows programmers to earn money without being tied to a specific company and location.

• High salaries

  The average salaries of programmers in different countries and regions of the world may vary, but one thing remains the same - coders earn several times more than the national average. And since, as mentioned above, the number of jobs for programmers over the next years will only grow, the ratio of income - coders to everyone else is unlikely to change much.

  And now about the numbers. According to recent data from the popular recruiting portal Indeed, programmers in the United States earn the most — an average of $106,000 per year. In second place is Switzerland - $ 88,773 per year. Israel ($73,000), Denmark ($66,000) and Norway ($54,000) are also in the top five in terms of encoder salaries. However, in fairness, do not forget that these figures reflect gross salaries, that is, they do not take into account taxes and other deductions.

  In ex-USSR countries, programmers, of course, receive less. But still, their salary bar is much higher than the average for the market. For Russia, Ukraine and Belarus, the average salary of lead coders is $3000 or more per month (more or less depends on the region), seniors can expect to be paid from 2.5 to 3 thousand, middles - 1.5-2 thousand, and from the start, in the first 6-12 months, a programmer can earn an average of $500 to $900.

• Almost guaranteed demand

  We have already talked about the demand for programmers, the growth in the number of vacancies and the numbers of forecasts above. Summing up all of the above, we can conclude that in the current conditions, a more or less qualified programmer can almost guarantee himself a job even during an economic downturn, and, therefore, has absolutely no reason to fear the coming crisis.

• Openness of the global labor market for programmers

  Another huge advantage of being a programmer is the fact that for a skilled coder, job options are not limited to one country or region, but include the whole world. Of course, no one canceled the need to know English at a level sufficient for communication, but this can hardly be called a serious obstacle. Thanks to the openness of the global labor market, today any average programmer has a very realistic career prospect, which will be supported by high material rewards. Of course, becoming a professional in your field, receiving offers from leading companies in Silicon Valley, is by no means an easy task, but this prospect is real and achievable, which in itself can provide motivation for growth and development.

• Weak dependence on local politics and the absence of artificial growth constraints

  For the same reasons, programmers are less dependent on what is happening in their local markets, at least in most cases. This allows you to think and plan your career in the long term, without fear that instability in your native state will cross out all your efforts.

  To this we can add the absence of artificial growth constraints in this professional field - programmers, as a rule, are evaluated solely by the level of their skills and knowledge, while all other indicators do not play a significant role.

Opinions

Now let's see what real programmers around the world think about this. Some interesting opinions from the English Q&A site Quora. “A lot depends on what kind of programmer you are. If you only know PHP/MySQL, or are something like a generic Android programmer or iOS developer for whom there is a huge amount of work on the market, you will be in demand, but don't expect high pay. On the other hand, if you're the kind of programmer who can figure out a problem and solve it using the right technology, then you'll be well paid regardless of the crisis,” said Firoze Rahman, a developer with over 12 years of experience. years of experience from Malaysia. "Everything is relative. Experienced developers with domain knowledge are always well paid and always have jobs. In fact, there is a real lack of developers with the specific knowledge that companies need, but at the same time, there are also quite a few programmers with no experience or with irrelevant experience, who will find it harder to find a job, and will have to put more effort into this,” said Nathaniel Brown is an experienced developer and computer science educator. “Let me tell you how things work at Amazon, where I work. To get a job at Amazon, a developer really has to raise a certain bar in code. The engineer is then expected to maintain this bar and raise it for many years. However, when it comes to promotion, systems design skills are valued much more than coding skills. Therefore, my answer is: if you have strong systems design skills along with good coding skills, then there is nothing to fear - you will be paid a lot regardless of the situation in the economy,” said Ritesh Kasat, a developer at Amazon Web Services. “When you hear programmers complaining about their salary, bear in mind that by doing so they are not comparing themselves to the average people around, but to other programmers. For example, in the US, even a poorly paid programmer is in the top 10% in terms of earnings, and many are even in the top 5%. So the answer is simple: yes, programmers still have high salaries, and this is unlikely to change any time soon. Our profession requires knowledge and skills that are simply not available to most people. Strong critical thinking and logical skills are also required, which, unfortunately, becoming more and more rare these days. A programmer is required to be both an engineer and a detective, and therefore we are paid the corresponding salaries,” says Nat Russo, an experienced developer from Texas.

Conclusions and epilogue

The conclusion from all of the above suggests itself: it is hardly necessary for programmers to worry too much about the crisis. While it might not be wise to completely ignore what's going on in business and the economy, deserving developers will at least not have to deal with unemployment in the coming years, and coder salaries will still be high compared to other professions. So if you're wondering if I should be investing the time and effort into learning to code as a profession today in 2020, or is it too late and the train is gone? Answer: you can still make it, the main thing is not to sit idly by. By the way. For those who doubt whether it is possible to learn Java and become a serious programmer from scratch, we have a separate article on this topic.. Well, for those who have no doubts, but have problems with laziness and completing what they started, our material on procrastination and the fight against this disease should help.